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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ARI
38.1%
TB
61.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jacoby Brissett (ARI): -0.069 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ARI

Will Hernandez G Out Hip
Emari Demercado RB Out Ankle
Christian Jones T Out Knee
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Ankle
Trey Benson RB Out Knee
Walter Nolen DT Out Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Groin
Bam Knight RB Questionable Knee
Max Melton CB Questionable Heel
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Questionable Illness
Hayden Conner G Questionable Knee

TB

Rashad Wisdom S Out Quadricep
Benjamin Morrison CB Out Hamstring
Haason Reddick LB Questionable Ankle
Baker Mayfield QB Questionable Shoulder
Anthony Nelson LB Questionable Ribs
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Hip
Ben Bredeson G Questionable Hamstring
Bucky Irving RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 17
–
TB 20

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:04 FG TB (8:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ARI 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 01:39 TD TB (1:39) 78-T.Wirfs reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 78-T.Wirfs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. ARI 3 – TB 10
  • Q3 04:01 TD TB (4:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – TB 16
  • Q3 00:38 TD ARI (:38) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 20-Z.Knight for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – TB 17
  • Q4 09:03 FG TB (9:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ARI 10 – TB 20
  • Q4 05:02 TD ARI (5:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – TB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (10:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to ARI 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 23 for 1 yard (82-D.Culp).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:26) 39-M.Haack punts 48 yards to TB 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-K.Johnson to TB 30 for 8 yards (47-C.Tindall).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (8:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:21) 39-M.Haack punts 44 yards to TB 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at 50 for 15 yards (36-K.Crawford).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 17-S.Shepard to ARI 9 for 5 yards (50-C.Simon; 3-B.Baker).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch. PENALTY on ARI-36-K.Crawford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 87%

    (7:50) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to ARI 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 12 for no gain (19-K.Johnson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:46) 20-Z.Knight left end to ARI 39 for no gain (98-A.Nelson; 90-L.Hall).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 59%

    (9:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to ARI 4, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 9 for 5 yards (58-M.Watts; 32-J.Hayes).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Wilson (8-S.Dennis).