Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch. PENALTY on ARI-36-K.Crawford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model