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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model