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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to ARI 4, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 9 for 5 yards (58-M.Watts; 32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.20 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -2.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model