4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to ARI 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 23 for 1 yard (82-D.Culp).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model