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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 76

New York Jets 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.35 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model