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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

ATL
51.5%
NYJ
48.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ATL 24
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ATL

Josh Woods LB Out Hamstring
Drake London WR Out Knee
Malik Verdon LB Out Shoulder
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Foot

NYJ

Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB Doubtful Hip
Allen Lazard WR Questionable Neck
Harrison Phillips DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
NYJ 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:00 TD NYJ (14:00) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ATL-93-K.Street has returned to the game. ATL 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 00:15 TD ATL (:15) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q3 09:41 TD ATL (9:41) 7-B.Robinson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – NYJ 7
  • Q3 09:05 TD NYJ (9:05) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 13:26 FG NYJ (13:26) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. ATL 17 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 08:52 TD ATL (8:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-D.Sills for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 24 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 00:05 FG NYJ (:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. ATL 24 – NYJ 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 28%

    (11:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 35%

    (7:19) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (3:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 5, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%

    (14:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to ATL 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at ATL 2.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (10:59) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (5:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to ATL 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (4:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%

    (1:49) 6-N.Folk 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 71%

    (:02) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (13:26) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (2:56) 2-T.Taylor up the middle to ATL 9 for 2 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:36) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to NYJ 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to ATL 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 1 yard (37-Q.Stiggers).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 43 for 16 yards (49-L.McCullough; 40-J.Bertrand).