4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 36

New York Jets 14 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-N.Folk 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model