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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 11
New York Jets 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24
What Actually Happened
(2:56) 2-T.Taylor up the middle to ATL 9 for 2 yards (55-K.Elliss).
The Three Options
GO
+3.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.95 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
KICK
+1.76 EP
- 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
