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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 24 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 43 for 16 yards (49-L.McCullough; 40-J.Bertrand).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -0.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model