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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 3-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model