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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 16:25 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 💨 Windy Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BUF
54.5%
PIT
45.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.010 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.164 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Aaron Rodgers in place of Mason Rudolph)
  • PIT offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than PIT
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
PIT 21
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BUF

Curtis Samuel WR Out Elbow
Dion Dawkins T Out Concussion
Spencer Brown T Out Shoulder
Terrel Bernard LB Out Elbow
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Ankle
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Hamstring
Tylan Grable T Questionable Concussion

PIT

Broderick Jones T Out Neck
Derrick Harmon DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 26
–
PIT 7

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:12 TD PIT (8:12) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 00:55 FG BUF (:55) 15-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 3 – PIT 7
  • Q3 14:54 TD BUF (14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-8-A.Rodgers was injured during the play. BUF 9 – PIT 7
  • Q3 08:53 TD BUF (8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 16 – PIT 7
  • Q4 14:16 TD BUF (14:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – PIT 7
  • Q4 01:12 FG BUF (1:12) 15-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 26 – PIT 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 18%

    (7:39) 3-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%

    (3:27) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir. PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 23.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (:15) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PIT 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-C.Austin ran ob at PIT 41 for 12 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%

    (14:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 26 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:55) 15-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 87%

    (1:29) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to PIT 21 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to BUF 9 for -2 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 92%

    (1:12) 15-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.