4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir. PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model