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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:15) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PIT 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-C.Austin ran ob at PIT 41 for 12 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP