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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 12

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model