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Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Friday 2025-11-28 · 15:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
38.8%
PHI
61.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.131 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CHI

T.J. Edwards LB Out Hand
Dominique Robinson DE Out Concussion
Noah Sewell LB Out Elbow
Tyrique Stevenson CB Out Hip
Ruben Hyppolite II LB Out Shoulder
Luke Newman G Out Foot
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Calf

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Foot
Xavier Gipson WR Out Shoulder
Myles Hinton T Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 24
–
PHI 15

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:35 TD CHI (1:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 13:08 FG PHI (13:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. CHI 7 – PHI 3
  • Q2 06:47 FG CHI (6:47) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 10 – PHI 3
  • Q3 08:11 TD PHI (8:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – PHI 9
  • Q4 12:53 TD CHI (12:53) 25-K.Monangai up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – PHI 9
  • Q4 06:26 TD CHI (6:26) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – PHI 9
  • Q4 03:14 TD PHI (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 24 – PHI 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

    (9:36) 25-K.Monangai right guard to PHI 24 for 1 yard (94-B.Young, 98-J.Carter). Philadelphia challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-K.Monangai right guard to PHI 25 for no gain (94-B.Young, 98-J.Carter).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:05) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to CHI 22, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (13:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (6:47) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:07) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 20 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 26. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 9 yards (21-T.Homer).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:43) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CHI 19, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:01) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to CHI 12, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 24 for 12 yards (7-K.Ringo).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:27) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to PHI 26, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 37%

    (10:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 57%

    (:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland ran ob at PHI 30 for 7 yards.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:22) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to CHI 37, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 65%

    (:13) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.