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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP