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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 77

Chicago Bears 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to PHI 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 26. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 9 yards (21-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model