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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CHI 19, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model