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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 10-B.Mann punts 60 yards to CHI 12, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 24 for 12 yards (7-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model