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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 25

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 25-K.Monangai right guard to PHI 24 for 1 yard (94-B.Young, 98-J.Carter). Philadelphia challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-K.Monangai right guard to PHI 25 for no gain (94-B.Young, 98-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model