Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Chicago Bears 17

(11:22) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to CHI 37, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.49 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model