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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 15 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.18 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model