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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to CHI 22, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model