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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 6

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 2-E.McPherson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model