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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Thursday 2025-11-27 · 20:20 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

CIN
38.9%
BAL
61.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.243 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.152 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.140 EPA/dropback (CIN starting Joe Burrow in place of Joe Flacco)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CIN

Trey Hendrickson DE Out Hip
Tee Higgins WR Out Concussion
Jermaine Burton WR Out Ankle
Tahj Brooks RB Out Concussion
Cameron Sample DE Questionable Oblique

BAL

Taven Bryan DT Out Knee
Justice Hill RB Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 32
–
BAL 14

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:42 FG CIN (9:42) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 3 – BAL 0
  • Q1 06:41 TD BAL (6:41) 22-D.Henry left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – BAL 6
  • Q2 11:28 FG CIN (11:28) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 6 – BAL 7
  • Q2 02:39 FG CIN (2:39) 2-E.McPherson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 9 – BAL 7
  • Q2 00:14 FG CIN (:14) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 12 – BAL 7
  • Q3 07:28 TD CIN (7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 18 – BAL 7
  • Q3 04:05 TD BAL (4:05) 34-K.Mitchell right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – BAL 13
  • Q3 00:20 TD CIN (:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 25 – BAL 14
  • Q4 09:30 FG CIN (9:30) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 29 – BAL 14
  • Q4 01:11 FG CIN (1:11) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 32 – BAL 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (9:42) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:08) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:45) 11-J.Stout punts 61 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 47 for 9 yards (27-T.Tampa).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 74%

    (13:06) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to BAL 30 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 87%

    (11:28) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (2:39) 2-E.McPherson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (1:42) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:44) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (:14) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:57) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-M.Tinsley to CIN 39 for 10 yards (39-K.Jackson; 88-C.Kolar).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 69%

    (9:30) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers (28-J.Newton).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 38 for 14 yards (23-D.Hill).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (1:11) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.