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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model