4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 15

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:14) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model