4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 4-Z.Flowers (28-J.Newton).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model