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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 38 for 14 yards (23-D.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model