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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 23

Cincinnati Bengals 29 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model