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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 65

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model