Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 15

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 3-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 39 for 14 yards (36-J.Chestnut). PENALTY on JAX-51-V.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model