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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-11-30 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

JAX
61.6%
TEN
38.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.203 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.080 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 25
–
TEN 19
Projected margin: JAX by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

JAX

Eric Murray S Out Neck
Patrick Mekari G Out Concussion
Chuma Edoga T Out Calf
Travon Walker DE Out Knee
Arik Armstead DT Questionable Hand

TEN

Shy Tuttle DT Out Concussion
Lloyd Cushenberry III C Out Foot
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Achilles
Kendell Brooks S Out Concussion
Xavier Woods S Questionable Hamstring
Dan Moore Jr. T Questionable Knee
Chig Okonkwo TE Questionable Foot
James Williams LB Questionable Illness
Elic Ayomanor WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 25
–
TEN 3

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:08 FG TEN (5:08) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. JAX 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 01:06 TD JAX (1:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD JAX (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 85-B.Strange for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:00 FG JAX (:00) 39-C.Little 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 18 – TEN 3
  • Q3 06:49 TD JAX (6:49) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – TEN 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 33%

    (11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 20 for 9 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (5:08) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:39) 3-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-P.Washington to JAX 39 for 14 yards (36-J.Chestnut). PENALTY on JAX-51-V.Miller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 39.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-31-K.Mullings, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:20) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to TEN 39, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 17-C.Dike to TEN 41 for 2 yards (80-Q.Morris; 26-An.Johnson).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:28) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. JAX-11-P.Washington was injured during the play.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%

    (:25) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 20-T.Pollard [41-J.Hines-Allen].

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:28) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to TEN 2 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:14) 3-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%

    (13:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike to TEN 35 for 13 yards (54-J.Kiser; 46-R.Matiscik). Penalty on TEN-44-M.Brown, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-9-L.Cooke, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-46-R.Matiscik, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TEN-35-K.Elam, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%

    (9:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to JAX 45 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 53
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 24%

    (6:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to JAX 48 for 5 yards (98-D.Smoot; 95-B.Green).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%

    (5:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.