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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 15 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to TEN 39, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 17-C.Dike to TEN 41 for 2 yards (80-Q.Morris; 26-An.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model