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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 2 at the 21
Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 15
What Actually Happened
(:25) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 20-T.Pollard [41-J.Hines-Allen].
The Three Options
GO
+2.13 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.38 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
- 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
