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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 20 for 9 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model