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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 18

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP