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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 18 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to TEN 2 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +4.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model