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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 6 at the 34
Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25
What Actually Happened
(13:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor.
The Three Options
GO
+0.62 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.26 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
KICK
+0.61 EP
- 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT
+0.00 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
