Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-C.Dike to TEN 35 for 13 yards (54-J.Kiser; 46-R.Matiscik). Penalty on TEN-44-M.Brown, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-9-L.Cooke, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-46-R.Matiscik, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TEN-35-K.Elam, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model