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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 2-T.Spears to JAX 45 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model