Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(13:23) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LAC 26, impetus ends at LAC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 43-T.Dye to LAC 26 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model