LV @ LAC — 4th & Data

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HC Jim Harbaugh

Sunday 2025-11-30 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

24.1%

LAC

75.9%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LV offense: -0.237 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
LAC on 7 more days rest than LV
Indoors — weather neutralised
QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.031 vs Geno Smith (LV) -0.132 EPA/dropback
LAC offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 18

–

LAC 25

Projected margin: LAC by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LV

Michael Mayer TE Out Ankle

Adam Butler DT Questionable Illness

Darnay Holmes CB Questionable Illness

Jordan Meredith C Questionable Ankle

Zamir White RB Questionable Illness

LAC

Omarion Hampton RB Out Ankle

Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 14

–

LAC 31

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:28 TD LAC (4:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – LAC 6
Q2 01:54 TD LV (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LAC 7
Q3 14:13 TD LAC (14:13) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – LAC 13
Q3 02:30 TD LAC (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-E.Roberts]. LV 7 – LAC 20
Q4 14:54 FG LAC (14:54) 11-C.Dicker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LV 7 – LAC 24
Q4 07:52 TD LV (7:52) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – LAC 24
Q4 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) (Shotgun) 32-J.Patterson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 14 – LAC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(13:23) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LAC 26, impetus ends at LAC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 43-T.Dye to LAC 26 for no gain.
Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 30%

(1:54) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 18

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

(6:37) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left guard to LV 18 for no gain (45-D.White; 69-A.Butler).
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 71%

(:29) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(9:49) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to LV 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-A.Bachman to LV 30 for 2 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(7:35) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 18 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68%

(:55) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 42 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

(14:54) 11-C.Dicker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q4 LV 4th & 13 at the 69 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(:50) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard to LV 37 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson).