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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:29) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.89 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -1.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP