Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 86

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(9:49) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to LV 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-A.Bachman to LV 30 for 2 yards (53-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model