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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(:55) 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 42 for -1 yards (45-T.Tuipulotu).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.25 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model