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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 11-C.Dicker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model