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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.34 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model