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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 7

Miami Dolphins 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model